Originally aired October 27, 2000

PERSPECTIVE

Political Polls Provide Insight into Trends
Reported by Statewide correspondent, Bill Kelly


The candidates for president had barely finished saying good night after their last debate when the poll results were broadcast to the world.
We asked 435 debate watchers which candidate they thought did the better job.
It has become so much a part of the landscape, polls on every topic every day, that Americans can be forgiven if they no longer can tell what's worthwhile and what's just junk.
[Dr. Frank Newport, Editor, Gallup Poll] "It's tough. We wrestle with that a lot. The consumer has a problem trying to judge polls. It's kind of like asking a consumer to judge medical research. A new study shows hairspray causes cancer hypothetically. How does the consumer know whether or not that's a legitimate study?"
Dr. Frank Newport is the editor of the Gallup Poll, considered the grandfather of all polls.
[Dr. Newport] "There are a lot of question that is we ask routinely and regularly and that's very important, because in polling trends as we call them are very, very important because if you ask the question exactly the same way time after time and you do see changes, you can be sure those changes are due to a real change in attitudes rather than, for example, a change in the way that you ask the question."
[Josh] "Hello, Sir, this is Josh. I'm calling with the Gallup Polls of Lincoln, Nebraska on behalf of CNN and we're just doing a brief study on the election coming up."
Gallup does the polling for the USA Today/CNN poll and every single night calls are made to track whether Gore or Bush are moving up or down. The results that will appear in "USA Today" and on TV are actually a three-day average of the calls made here in Lincoln. That smooths out the unexpected spikes so hopefully it better represents the real American point of view. The results make interesting talk for political junkies. But do opinion polls also shape opinion in an information rich age? [Goerge H. Gallup, Jr.] "Well, I think people basically vote for more substantial reasons than the desire to be on the winner's side or to help the underdog."
George Gallup's father pioneered scientific public opinion sampling. While the daily technique has changed, the basic principles, Gallup maintains, still hold firm.

[Gallup] "We feel very strongly in the research world that a leader should lead and not follow public opinion. But as reporters, we feel that, you know, it's our duty to put out the information as objectively as we possibly can."
And you do view yourself as reporters?
[Gallup] "Oh, we absolutely do.
"Closer among Democrats. Look at this. How about women and men?"
David Kotok is a reporter. He is the man behind much of the "Omaha World-Herald's" political coverage for the past two decades.
"OK. Where is the ballot issues? Here we are."
He worked with the paper's New Hampshire-based polling firm to develop questions that would both track this year's election races and the key issues of interest in Omaha and the rest of Nebraska.
They're more for the initiative, more against sam-sex marriages.
The result? 102 pages of data that must now be turned into an understandable series of stories for the paper's readers.
Any surprises?
[Kotok] "Actually there were -- things didn't change a lot. Oddly, both Ben improved and Bush improved."
That made the gaps on those actually bigger?
[Kotok] "Actually got bigger. People say I hate polls and then they say who's ahead? I mean there is news to who is ahead. That is a part of it. Without polls, we'd be guessing."
The open U.S. Senate seat is the highest profile race in the state but in a quick review of the results, the paper's editors learned that the race hasn't changed much since the May Primary. In the September poll, Ben Nelson still had a healthy lead over Don Stenberg.
[Kotok] "The big thing there is actually team Stenberg doesn't seem to be working because you've got one out of three Bush voters saying they're voting for Nelson. Which I think is almost more relevant in this race than the margin."
Decisions must be made quickly by the paper's editorial staff. The first mock-up of the Sunday paper is just hours away and there are few surprises in the high profile candidate contests.
[Kotok] "If you look at the presidential race in Nebraska, it essentially has not changed unlike the rest of the country unless you look at the 2nd District where it's a virtual tie."
That makes those races less news worthy for managing editor Larry King. Those parts of the poll are less desirable to put on the high profile Sunday edition front page.
[Larry King] "We look for what we think is the most newsy story, the one that will tell the readers the most informative, the latest news. It keeps important political issues in front of the electorate which is what a newspaper should do and it provides a touchstone for people to determine how they feel about a race or an issue and how much they might want to react to it."
The results on the controversial ballot initiative banning same- sex marriages is a different matter.
Don't the first two choices, aren't they explicitly saying it's a moral but a private issue.
With those two together, 61% who were uncomfortable with it.
There has been no previous independent polling on the issue in Nebraska so the overwhelming poll results will literally make news.
But I think the headline is Nebraskans not ready for same-sex marriages.
[King] "We're going to go Sunday on same-sex marriages. We agreed on that. What kind of reporting are we going to do to surround that?
There must be more than just the poll on the Sunday front page.
"This story has more text than this out front but they'll have the graphic to tell them quickly what the answers are to the poll so do we want to give them more here?
"The "World-Herald" had already completed a background piece highlighting a married female couple and interviews with gay marriage opponents.
"How hard do we want to hit this I guess? How big do we want the art to be?"
Newspaper poll stories now often go beyond the horse race.
[King] "A few years ago we would have just done the horse race but you can get beyond just the horse race questions and then you do additional reporting beyond that to provide the perspective so it is just not a horse race question which makes it much more relevant, much more important and explanatory to the readers."
[Kotok] "We could call three sociologists and they could speculate but if we can get hard data that shows of those who think homosexuality is immoral, 90% of them are voting yes on ballot issue whatever number we give it, I mean that becomes significant."
So not only was the yes or no question put to Nebraskans but a series of questions that helped measure how they felt about homosexuality. The results were comforting to those opposed to same-sex marriage. Kotok got the names of Nebraskans, the pollsters had already surveyed.
[Kotok] "Say 10 people with their responses so I can actually talk to some people and ask them why they said the things they did. How does it make a compelling story? It's not just the numbers but it's what's behind it, what does it mean, what does it tell us. What a poll should do is tell us about ourselves."
[King] "If they just want the basic numbers, it will be there in a nice little box and there will be readers that will just glance at that box and then go on to the sports page but for those who want to get beyond that, it will be there, too."
By Saturday afternoon, the "Omaha World-Herald" has committed the top of the fold story to the poll results on the same-sex marriage ballot question. In the first few paragraphs, specific word choices and the placement of quotes make all the difference in how readers perceive the fairness of the coverage.
[King] "The conspiracy theorists will say that it's all biased and predetermined and it's the "World-Herald" trying to shape the news. We pay a lot of money and have a lot of painstaking effort to make these as unbiased and as fair as possible, and so any time we're accused of trying to slant a poll, I guess that bothers me."
[Kotok] "Here is my favorite question which is oh, we know you took a poll, why wouldn't you give us the results? To my answer is this cost us a lot of money. We think there's value in it. There's no reason in the world we aren't going -- we're doing this as an enterprise that we have something of value that we want to share with our readers that makes the "Omaha World-Herald" more valuable to them."
That Saturday night the first edition, the Bulldog edition of the "Omaha World-Herald" provides strong documented evidence that Nebraskans seem ready to support changing the State's constitution to ban gay marriages. The same story will be featured promptly on radio and television Sunday night and on Monday morning in almost every newspaper in the state. There is not a concern that the poll can shape opinion. In fact, those who conduct polling often insist the numbers should be taken as nothing more than a snapshot of where citizens stand on an issue at a particular point in time.
[Dr. Newport] "A lot of the academic research does not show that the polls can make a big difference. If they did, no one would ever come from behind and win, right?"
Please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about prescription drugs for older Americans?
Which leads to a final interesting paradox. The man who edits the Gallup Poll says if a voter chooses to use a poll as part of their decision on how to vote, well, that's just fine, too.
[Dr. Newport] "The people have a lot of input when they decide who to vote for. If they want to look at a poll and say geez, you know, 70% of Nebraska residents are going to vote for candidate X and say they're not so stupid, maybe I should as well. That I think is as legitimate an input as a lot of other people would make a vote choice on the basis of."
Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide who vote for.
We will find out how accurate Gallup and the "World-Herald" polls were on November 7th when, as the politicians say, we'll take the only poll that really matters.

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Captioning by Nebraska Captioning Center, Lincoln, Nebraska