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| PERSPECTIVE |
By Bill
Kelly, STATEWIDE Correspondent.
A sticky summer afternoon in the middle of North Platte's
Nebraskaland Days. It's the biggest tourist event of the year. A beautiful,
hazy day that might get interesting. A thunderhead 150 miles away in Garden
County can already be seen on the horizon. No one is more interested than
the forecasters at the National Weather Service. Their office -- by the airport.
[Unidentified weather announcer] "We're expecting potential
for hail surfacing with a latitude of two inches with wind gusts to over 80
miles an hour..."
Weather watches are issued by the main forecast center in
Oklahoma. Conditions are ripe for summer storms and perhaps tornados across
much of Nebraska for the rest of the day.
[Dave Wert, meteorologist in charge] "You can see it
covers all of the panhandle in the western part of the state."
From this point on, the full responsibility for issuing local
storm warnings for 23 central Nebraska counties will lie solely with the North
Platte team. The atmosphere outside is unstable setting the stage for potentially
violent weather.
[Wert] "As a matter of fact, the way -- it's like popping
a balloon. You don't know when it's going to pop but when it happens, it happens
very quickly. And the atmosphere is the same way.
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Dave Wert is the meteorologist in charge."
[Wert] "One of these things which looks very benign
right now, 15 minutes from now could be producing dime size hail or even something
larger. It's going to be pretty active."
For the team on duty this afternoon, the equipment ranges
from the less than ideal computers assembled in the 1970's to the latest doppler
radar that pinpoints the inner workings of a weather system in nearly every
way possible. That radar has been tracking a fairly intense thunderstorm across
the panhandle. Until now the storm cell has been the responsibility of the
weather service office in Cheyenne, Wyoming. As it crosses into Garden County,
Nebraska it's on the turf of the North Platte forecasters. Today's first warning
is based on a combination of facts about today's weather conditions -- the
forecaster's knowledge of how the weather works combined with logical guesswork
done by sophisticated computer models and math work.
[Wert] "So you have to do some type of extrapolation
and use sound physical principles to try to anticipate well, this is what
I'm seeing, this is why I'm seeing it, and this is what is most likely to
occur. And that's where the forecasting. It's just as much an art as it is
a science still."
Shortly after the storm belts Oshkosh, Nebraska, it huffs
and puffs and blows itself out. But as the evening shift arrives for their
briefing, there are new storms already percolating.
[John Stoppkotte, meteorologist] "S.P.C. when they coordinated
with me said they expect those things just to explode all along that frontal
boundary which would be right along in through here. Here in this case is
an area where data collected from weather balloons and satellite data show
conditions providing pockets of warm moist air needed to give power or lift
for brewing thunderstorms."
[Unidentified weather service worker] "The best potential
for severe thunderstorm development would be kind of along the South Dakota-Nebraska
border. Everything kind of looks like it's pointing in that same direction.
Where the tightest circles are."
[Unidentified weather service worker] "Where you have
the dashed green there is where we have actual forcing going on which contributes
to the lift. Best potential would be right there."
The result is this storm, powerful but unstable heading for
Nebraska. There's enough momentum, hail, wind, and lightening to warrant a
severe thunderstorm warning for the county and its path.
[Theresa Wood, lead meteorologist] "Let's just put Sheridan
in there for now because the way that they've been pulsing up and down, it
could fall apart long before it gets to Cherry."
The forecasters will hold off on warning other counties until
they get a better read on the storm's development. Reports from volunteer
spotters in the field hint that storm is becoming more powerful. This is how
the storm looks on radar, and this is the same monster storm to the north
of Hay Springs.
[Unidentified weather announcer] "At 3:38 p.m. Mountain
Daylight Time a severe thunderstorm was indicated by North Platte Doppler
Radar..."
These are recorded weather announcements that interrupt many
local radio and television broadcasts.
[Unidentified weather announcer] .".. Damaging hail
and/or destructive winds can be expected near White Clay by 3:45 p.m. Mountain
Daylight Time."
The teletype versions are the raw material used by TV weather
casters when they go on the air to warn their viewers of severe weather.
[Unidentified weather announcer] .".. If you are in
the path of this storm, you should move inside a strong building and go to
the lowest floor possible."
That warning gave the people in the tiny border town of White
Clay a full nine minutes advanced warning. So far the forecasters prove to
be precise to the minute. They know because they check while the storms are
still on the move.
[Sheri Mutchler, meteorology intern] "You didn't have
any hail? I heard there were some reports of wind and other things with it."
Using a master list of phone numbers for nearly every darn
home and business in rural Nebraska, an intern makes a quick call to White
Clay.
[Mutchler] "We don't have any numbers for White Clay.
I knew there was a cafe there, the Jumping Eagle Cafe -- or the Jumping Eagle
Inn and I got their number from information, happened to call them, happened
to hit just the right person who had a report of hail that had occurred there
in the past five minutes. That verifies our storm warning that tells us we
put out a good warning."
[Wert] "What do you think the largest size hail was?

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With radar only able to measure the inside of the storm at thousands of feet
in the air, the phone calls to and from ground spotters are the forecasters'
eyes miles away from their computers.
[Wert] "5:15, six north of Gordon, one-inch of hail.
He is in an excellent viewing angle for that storm. He said there's no appendage
at this point. A lot of turbulence in the clouds but he's going to keep an
eye on it and tell us if he sees the funnel drop."
[Mutchler] "There is no substitute for actual human
eyes when it comes to storms and tornados."
The storm is only getting more powerful. The lead meteorologist
calls it a classic system.
[Wood] "It's not showing any trend really of weakening
right now. Within 15 minutes it's going to go into northwestern Cherry County."
[Unidentified weather announcer] "Attention, Valentine
warning point, this is the National Weather Service in North Platte."
As the storm moved into Cherry County, it divided and multiplied
into four separate large storms spread across Nebraska's largest county. Here
the warnings are split as well since different storms are hitting different
parts of Cherry at different times.
[Wood] "We're going to have to go ahead and warn on
that one, too."
Each cell has to be tracked independently for signs of it
intensifying or even spawning a tornado. It's called a convective complex,
and it's likely to have a very long life.
[Wert] "This will be continuing all night long as it
moves to the east-southeast into eastern Nebraska and then ultimately into
Iowa. So by tomorrow morning and even around noon, you will probably see this
thing 3, 400 miles to the east of us and still in tact."
Again, the computer model showed this storm could produce
huge hail. Each of the tiny triangles pinpoint where people and crops are
likely getting hammered. One estimates three-inch hail stones.
[Wert] "That's for northcentral Cherry and your expiration
is 6:55."
Outside a weather balloon launch is being coordinated with
weather monitoring stations around the world. At exactly 6:00 p.m., the balloon
races to the northeast. The remote control sensors attached to the back send
information about wind speeds and temperatures in the upper atmosphere, the
type of baseline data that can help make sense of a fast brewing storm like
the one now visible on the horizon hovering over Duel County.
[Wood] "Did the balloon head far enough to find out
what the freezing levels are?"
As if keeping track of four separate storms in Cherry County
was not enough, an entirely new complex had cropped up to the south. Five
storms to keep track of at once, four of them in one county.
[Kelly]"You stay awfully calm with all that at stake."
[Stoppkotte] "Well, I guess I've just been doing it
a long time. I just -- I've been in this for 23 years so almost all working
severe weather radar."
[Kelly]"Does it ever scare you?

[Stoppkotte]
"If it does, I kind of keep it down. I get kind of -- my stomach gets
to churning sometimes and then when I get home, it takes a while to settle
down."
[Wood] "Whenever you got the report, you feel for the
people that are there. I get a rush from it."
[Kelly]"What's the rush feel like?"
[Wood] "Just your bloods a pumping. You get excited.
You're alert to what's going on. Especially when the damage reports start
coming in. When you're concerned for other people in an environment where
that's happening."
[Wert] "There's an adrenalin rush. I think you need
that to keep the edge. Very frequently people will be here 8, even 10 hours
working at a frenzied pace. You need to have that adrenalin to keep yourself
going and to keep sharp so you're not missing something that might ultimately
impact a person's life."
[Unidentified weather announcer] "... In Southwestern
Nebraska, Eastern Perkins County..."
As the new storm moves into adjoining Perkins County, new
warnings are issued.
[Unidentified weather announcer] "... 21 miles south-southeast
of Ogallala.
The radar shows it but now the storm is literally at their
back door, and some forecasters spend as much time watching out the window
as others do watching radar screens. What they see is an ominous wall cloud
appearing to the west."
[Wert] "This is a perfect opportunity to see a super
cell in action.
For a few brief moments, it looks like a tornado may drop
out of the sky within site of the Weather Service office."
[Wert] "What you have is you got the inflow into the
base of the storm and it's turning like this. So as it turns, it throws the
hail downstream to the north so you can see all the fuzz which is the rain
falling, and right on the intersection where you have the updraft which is
rotating, you have that lowering of the cloud base which we call the wall
cloud."
A minute later the storm simply collapses losing all its
energy. It's become little more than a gully washer.
[Wert] "Well, all the warnings for Cherry County have
expired. There still is scattered convective activity up there, some of which
is strong, but most of the real nasty stuff moved further to the east into
northcentral Nebraska."
[Stoppkotte] "This cluster, all the storms seem to be
decreasing in intensity right now, but the air is still unstable out there
so they could fire up again later."
Outside the forecast office, the wind is picking up and the
rain is moving in. The next round of storms are brewing to the west. A whole
new set of warnings one right after another will come out of the North Platte
Weather Service office all night long.